Faetano v La Fiorita prediction · Campionato

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FaetanoDrawLa Fiorita

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · La Fiorita 80%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

La Fiorita are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Faetano 6%, draw 14%, La Fiorita 80%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Faetano v La FioritaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Faetano win6%

Draw14%

La Fiorita win80%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Faetano

La Fiorita

15Days since last match16

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 9 Oct · Campionato

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
16	Faetano	5	−14	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · la fiorita winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make La Fiorita an 80% chance to win. The model expects 0.5–2.7, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Faetano v La Fiorita~~0.54 – 2.68

~~Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~16 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Faetano win	6%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
La Fiorita win	80%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Faetano or draw	20%	–	–
Faetano clean sheet	8%	–	–
La Fiorita clean sheet	59%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.0%

0123450 5.2 10.8 14.0 12.1 8.1 4.71 6.4 7.3 6.2 4.1 2.32 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Faetano down, La Fiorita across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 Campionato matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Faetano at home: 0.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). La Fiorita away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.54 goals for Faetano, 2.68 for La Fiorita. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LAF 3–1 FAE · FAE 1–2 LAF · FAE 0–2 LAF · LAF 2–1 FAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug

FAETANO

LLDDL0–4 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–6

LA FIORITA

DDDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus	6	+10	16
2	Tre Penne	6	+9	16
3	Folgore	5	+13	15
4	Tre Fiori	6	+10	13
5	Cosmos	6	+10	13
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
7	Libertas	5	0	8
8	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
9	Domagnano	5	−1	6
10	San Giovanni	6	−7	4
11	Pennarossa	6	−13	4
12	Juvenes / Dogana	6	−2	3
13	Cailungo	5	−2	3
14	Murata	5	−9	3
15	San Marino Academy	6	−13	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2