Home › Football › Campionato › Faetano v Fiorentino

Faetano v Fiorentino

Faetano

0–6Full time

Fiorentino

Campionato · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Faetano 0–6 Fiorentino FIORENTINO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fiorentino win~~54%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fiorentino win at 54%.
4′Much as we predicted: Fiorentino was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 20–25–55
4′KICK-OFF Faetano v Fiorentino
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Faetano 0–1 Fiorentino
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Faetano 0–2 Fiorentino
25′Fiorentino find the net on 24′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Faetano 0–3 Fiorentino
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Fiorentino win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 11' Faetano 0–3 Fiorentino · M. Costantini
43′⚽ GOAL · 20' Faetano 0–3 Fiorentino · M. Vicente
43′⚽ GOAL · 25' Faetano 0–3 Fiorentino · F. Ledesma
45′A goal for Fiorentino on 45′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Faetano 0–4 Fiorentino
45′HALF-TIME Faetano 0–4 Fiorentino
49′SECOND HALF Faetano 0–4 Fiorentino
56′56′ and it is 0–5: S. Cucchi on the scoresheet for Fiorentino. 0–5 · 0–0–100
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Faetano 0–5 Fiorentino
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Faetano 0–6 Fiorentino
FTFULL TIME Faetano 0–6 Fiorentino
FTFaetano 0–6 Fiorentino · Fiorentino win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Faetano win20%

Draw26%

Fiorentino win54%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fiorentino winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

54% The market54%

Us54%

~~Market~~54%

We make Fiorentino a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fiorentino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Faetano win	20%	19%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Fiorentino win	54%	54%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	43%	+5
Both teams to score	48%	45%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	23%	+4
Faetano or draw	46%	46%	0
Faetano clean sheet	20%	–	–
Fiorentino clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 9.0 11.5 10.3 5.9 2.7 1 5.9 11.8 8.9 5.1 2.3 2 3.2 5.1 4.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Faetano down, Fiorentino across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,261 Campionato matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Faetano at home: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fiorentino away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Faetano, 1.71 for Fiorentino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FIO 1–2 FAE · FAE 0–3 FIO · FAE 2–3 FIO · FIO 1–0 FAE

Form · last six in Campionato

FAETANO

LLLLDD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1

FIORENTINO

LWWLDL0–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	5	+13	15
2	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
3	Virtus	4	+4	10
4	Tre Fiori	4	+9	9
5	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
6	Libertas	5	0	8
7	Cosmos	4	+5	7
8	Domagnano	4	+1	6
9	Fiorentino	4	−1	4
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3
11	Cailungo	5	−2	3
12	San Giovanni	4	−6	3
13	Murata	5	−9	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2
16	Faetano	4	−8	2