Domagnano v Tre Penne prediction · Campionato

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Domagnano 0–2 Tre Penne TRE PENNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tre Penne win~~58%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.260

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.310

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tre Penne win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Domagnano v Tre Penne
3′Little has changed for our model: Tre Penne 58% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 19–22–60
5′Little has changed for our model: Tre Penne 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 19–22–59
45′HALF-TIME Domagnano 0–0 Tre Penne
46′SECOND HALF Domagnano 0–0 Tre Penne
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Domagnano 0–1 Tre Penne
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Domagnano 0–2 Tre Penne
FTFULL TIME Domagnano 0–2 Tre Penne
FTDomagnano 0–2 Tre Penne · Tre Penne win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Domagnano win19%

Draw23%

Tre Penne win58%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Domagnano

Tre Penne

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
9	Domagnano	4	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tre penne winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

58% The market55%

Us58%

~~Market~~55%

We make Tre Penne a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tre penne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Domagnano win	19%	20%	−2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Tre Penne win	58%	55%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	52%	+5
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	31%	+5
Domagnano or draw	42%	45%	−4
Domagnano clean sheet	15%	–	–
Tre Penne clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.3 9.2 9.6 6.3 3.3 1 4.5 10.6 9.3 6.1 3.2 2 2.7 5.0 4.7 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Domagnano down, Tre Penne across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 Campionato matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.64 goals a meeting; 6 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Domagnano at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tre Penne away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Domagnano, 2.00 for Tre Penne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.64

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~TRE 3–1 DOM · DOM 1–2 TRE · TRE 0–0 DOM · TRE 3–1 DOM

Form · last six in Campionato

DOMAGNANO

WLWWLL2–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

TRE PENNE

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	5	+13	15
2	Tre Fiori	5	+10	12
3	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
4	Virtus	4	+4	10
5	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
6	Libertas	5	0	8
7	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
8	Cosmos	4	+5	7
9	Domagnano	4	+1	6
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3
11	Cailungo	5	−2	3
12	San Giovanni	5	−7	3
13	Murata	5	−9	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2