Cosmos v Juvenes / Dogana prediction · Campionato

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Cosmos 1–0 Juvenes / Dogana COSMOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cosmos win~~47%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.498

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cosmos win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Cosmos was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–22
3′Much as we predicted: Cosmos was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–22
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Cosmos win: 47% at kick-off, 38% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Cosmos win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cosmos win 37%)
46′SECOND HALF Cosmos 0–0 Juvenes / Dogana
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Cosmos 1–0 Juvenes / Dogana
FTFULL TIME Cosmos 1–0 Juvenes / Dogana
FTCosmos 1–0 Juvenes / Dogana · Cosmos win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cosmos win47%

Draw31%

Juvenes / Dogana win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cosmos

Juvenes / Dogana

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cosmos	4	+5	7
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cosmos winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

47% The market42%

Us47%

~~Market~~42%

We make Cosmos a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cosmos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cosmos win	47%	42%	+5
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Juvenes / Dogana win	22%	29%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	34%	49%	−15
Both teams to score	39%	54%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	61%	72%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	16%	29%	−13
Cosmos or draw	78%	71%	+8
Cosmos clean sheet	47%	–	–
Juvenes / Dogana clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 14.7 8.9 3.8 1 15.2 13.0 4.7 2 10.3 7.7 3.1 3 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cosmos down, Juvenes / Dogana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 Campionato matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cosmos at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Juvenes / Dogana away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Cosmos, 0.78 for Juvenes / Dogana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COS 0–1 JUV · JUV 1–0 COS · COS 0–0 JUV · JUV 1–3 COS

Form · last six in Campionato

COSMOS

DDDLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 6–1 · 2–0

JUVENES / DOGANA

DLWLLL0–0 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	5	+13	15
2	Tre Fiori	5	+10	12
3	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
4	Virtus	4	+4	10
5	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
6	Libertas	5	0	8
7	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
8	Cosmos	4	+5	7
9	Domagnano	4	+1	6
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3
11	Cailungo	5	−2	3
12	San Giovanni	5	−7	3
13	Murata	5	−9	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2