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Cailungo v Libertas

Cailungo

1–2Full time

Libertas

Campionato · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:00

Cailungo 1–2 Libertas LIBERTAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Libertas win~~43%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Libertas win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Libertas 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Cailungo v Libertas
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Cailungo 1–0 Libertas
45′HALF-TIME Cailungo 1–0 Libertas
46′SECOND HALF Cailungo 1–0 Libertas
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Cailungo 1–1 Libertas
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Cailungo 1–2 Libertas
FTCailungo 1–2 Libertas · Libertas win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cailungo win31%

Draw26%

Libertas win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 20:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · libertas winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

43% The market52%

Us43%

~~Market~~52%

We make Libertas a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · libertas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cailungo win	31%	23%	+9
Draw	26%	25%	0
Libertas win	43%	52%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Cailungo or draw	57%	48%	+9
Cailungo clean sheet	21%	–	–
Libertas clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 7.5 6.7 3.7 1 6.1 11.6 8.5 4.7 2.0 2 4.7 7.1 5.7 3.1 3 2.2 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cailungo down, Libertas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,258 Campionato matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cailungo at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Libertas away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Cailungo, 1.64 for Libertas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAI 1–2 LIB · LIB 0–1 CAI · LIB 0–0 CAI · CAI 2–2 LIB

Form · last six in Campionato

CAILUNGO

LDLLLW1–6 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

LIBERTAS

LDDWLD0–9 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	4	+9	12
2	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
3	Virtus	4	+4	10
4	Tre Fiori	4	+9	9
5	Cosmos	4	+5	7
6	Domagnano	4	+1	6
7	La Fiorita	4	+1	6
8	Libertas	4	−1	5
9	Fiorentino	4	−1	4
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3
11	Cailungo	4	−1	3
12	Murata	4	−6	3
13	San Giovanni	4	−6	3
14	Pennarossa	4	−9	3
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2
16	Faetano	4	−8	2