Cailungo v Juvenes / Dogana prediction · Campionato

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CailungoDrawJuvenes / Dogana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Juvenes / Dogana 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juvenes / Dogana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cailungo 21%, draw 27%, Juvenes / Dogana 52%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Cailungo v Juvenes / DoganaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Cailungo win21%

Draw27%

Juvenes / Dogana win52%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:15

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cailungo

Juvenes / Dogana

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 23 Oct · Campionato

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Juvenes / Dogana	6	−2	3
13	Cailungo	5	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · juvenes / dogana winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Juvenes / Dogana a 52% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cailungo v Juvenes / Dogana~~0.93 – 1.62

~~Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~13 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cailungo win	21%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Juvenes / Dogana win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Cailungo or draw	48%	–	–
Cailungo clean sheet	21%	–	–
Juvenes / Dogana clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 9.5 11.8 10.0 5.5 2.4 1 6.5 12.1 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 3.5 5.3 4.2 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cailungo down, Juvenes / Dogana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 Campionato matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cailungo at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Juvenes / Dogana away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Cailungo, 1.62 for Juvenes / Dogana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JUV 1–1 CAI · CAI 0–2 JUV · CAI 1–2 JUV · JUV 2–0 CAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug

CAILUNGO

LLLWLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

JUVENES / DOGANA

WLLLLL4–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus	6	+10	16
2	Tre Penne	6	+9	16
3	Folgore	5	+13	15
4	Tre Fiori	6	+10	13
5	Cosmos	6	+10	13
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
7	Libertas	5	0	8
8	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
9	Domagnano	5	−1	6
10	San Giovanni	6	−7	4
11	Pennarossa	6	−13	4
12	Juvenes / Dogana	6	−2	3
13	Cailungo	5	−2	3
14	Murata	5	−9	3
15	San Marino Academy	6	−13	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2