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Sunrise v Gasogi United
SunriseGasogi UnitedNational Soccer League · WED 14 OCT · Nyagatare Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sunrise win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Sunrise 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
- 1′KICK-OFF Sunrise v Gasogi United
- 10′Sunrise find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sunrise 1–0 Gasogi United
- 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Sunrise win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
- 11′We said Sunrise at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
- 19′Sunrise ahead on 11′ through H. Kitegenyi. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
- 32′We said Sunrise at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
- 45′HALF-TIME Sunrise 1–0 Gasogi United
- 46′SECOND HALF Sunrise 1–0 Gasogi United
- 48′A goal for Gasogi United on 47′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–47–22
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sunrise 1–1 Gasogi United
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sunrise win: 42% at kick-off, 31% now
- 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sunrise win 31%)
- 49′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–48–22
- 51′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
- 63′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–18
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Sunrise win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 70′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
- 77′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–11
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sunrise win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 82′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
- 89′We said Sunrise at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
- FTFULL TIME Sunrise 1–1 Gasogi United
- FTSunrise 1–1 Gasogi United · Sunrise win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
Sunrise win42%Gasogi United win28%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00
VenueNyagatare Stadium
Match timeline
All events
SunriseMINGasogi UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Sunrise
Gasogi United
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | -1 | 3 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sunrise a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrise win | 42% | – | – |
| Draw | 30% | – | – |
| Gasogi United win | 28% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 41% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – | – |
| Sunrise or draw | 72% | – | – |
| Sunrise clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Gasogi United clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2022Form · last six in National Soccer League
SUNRISE
GASOGI UNITED
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gicumbi | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Etincelles | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 |  Mukura | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Gorilla | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Sunrise | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 |  Marines | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 |  Amagaju | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 |  Kiyovu Sports | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 |  AS Kigali | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 |  APR | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 |  Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 |  Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Police | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Gasogi United | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Musanze | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 |  Rayon Sports | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 |  Etoile de l'Est | 3 | -3 | 1 |
The competition's standings.