Sunrise v Etoile de l'Est prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SunriseDrawEtoile de l'Est

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sunrise 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sunrise are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sunrise 45%, draw 30%, Etoile de l'Est 26%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Sunrise v Etoile de l'EstBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sunrise win45%

Draw30%

Etoile de l'Est win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sunrise

Etoile de l'Est

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sunrise winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Sunrise a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sunrise v Etoile de l'Est~~1.24 – 0.87

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~8 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sunrise win	45%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Etoile de l'Est win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Sunrise or draw	74%	–	–
Sunrise clean sheet	42%	–	–
Etoile de l'Est clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 12.6 10.4 4.6 1 14.8 13.1 5.6 2 9.3 7.9 3.4 3 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sunrise down, Etoile de l'Est across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sunrise at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Etoile de l'Est away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Sunrise, 0.87 for Etoile de l'Est. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ETO 2–2 SUN · SUN 1–0 ETO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

SUNRISE

DDWDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

ETOILE DE L'EST

LDLD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1