Rayon Sports v Mukura prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rayon SportsDrawMukura

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Rayon Sports 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayon Sports are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayon Sports 48%, draw 29%, Mukura 22%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Rayon Sports v MukuraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Rayon Sports win48%

Draw29%

Mukura win22%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayon Sports

Mukura

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayon sports winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Rayon Sports a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rayon Sports v Mukura~~1.30 – 0.79

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~18 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayon Sports win	48%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Mukura win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Rayon Sports or draw	78%	–	–
Rayon Sports clean sheet	46%	–	–
Mukura clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 12.7 9.6 3.8 1 15.9 12.8 4.9 2 10.5 8.2 3.2 3 4.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayon Sports down, Mukura across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayon Sports at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mukura away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Rayon Sports, 0.79 for Mukura. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAY 2–1 MUK · MUK 1–1 RAY · RAY 0–1 MUK · MUK 2–1 RAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

RAYON SPORTS

DL1–1 · 0–1

MUKURA

WLWD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1