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Model 1.1

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Police v Gorilla

Police
0–0Full time
Gorilla

National Soccer League · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31
Police 0–0 Gorilla POLICE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Police win47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Police win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Police was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–31–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Police v Gorilla
  4. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Police win 38%)
  5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  6. 43′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–47–18
  7. 45′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Police 0–0 Gorilla
  9. 46′HALF-TIME Police 0–0 Gorilla
  10. 56′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  11. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  12. 64′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
  13. 71′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  14. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  15. 77′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  16. 82′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
  17. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  18. 89′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  19. FTFULL TIME Police 0–0 Gorilla
  20. FTPolice 0–0 Gorilla · Police win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Police are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Police 47%, draw 31%, Gorilla 22%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Police v GorillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Police win47%
Draw31%
Gorilla win22%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police

Gorilla

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Gorilla3+16
14Police3−13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
47% The market–
Us47%

We make Police a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Police v Gorilla1.17 – 0.69
Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 SeptW1 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L1
Table places · points 3 v 614 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Police win47%––
Draw31%––
Gorilla win22%––
Over 2.5 goals29%––
Both teams to score34%––
Over 1.5 goals56%––
Over 3.5 goals12%––
Police or draw78%––
Police clean sheet50%––
Gorilla clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%
0123450 15.7 10.7 3.8 1 18.0 12.6 4.3 2 10.6 7.3 2.5 3 4.2 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Police down, Gorilla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsGOR 1–1 POL · POL 4–0 GOR · GOR 0–0 POL · POL 0–0 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

POLICE

LWL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

GORILLA

WLW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Gicumbi4+29
2Etincelles407
3Mukura3+26
4Sunrise4+16
5Gorilla3+16
6Marines304
7Amagaju404
8Gasogi United3−14
9Kiyovu Sports4−14
10AS Kigali4−34
11APR1+23
12Al Hilal Omdurman1+23
13Bugesera2+13
14Police3−13
15Musanze3−13
16Al Merreikh101
17Rayon Sports2−11
18Etoile de l'Est3−31

The competition's standings before kick-off.