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Police v Gorilla
Police
GorillaNational Soccer League · FRI 16 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Police win at 47%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Police was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–31–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Police v Gorilla
- 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Police win 38%)
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
- 43′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–47–18
- 45′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
- 45′SECOND HALF Police 0–0 Gorilla
- 46′HALF-TIME Police 0–0 Gorilla
- 56′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
- 64′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–13
- 71′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 77′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
- 82′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Police win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 89′We said Police at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Police 0–0 Gorilla
- FTPolice 0–0 Gorilla · Police win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassPolice are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Police 47%, draw 31%, Gorilla 22%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 34%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Police win47%
Gorilla win22%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 5
Match timeline
All events
PoliceMIN
GorillaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Police
Gorilla
Last match: 11 Oct · National Soccer League
Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Police a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Police win | 47% | – | – |
| Draw | 31% | – | – |
| Gorilla win | 22% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 34% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | – | – |
| Police or draw | 78% | – | – |
| Police clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Gorilla clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept
POLICE
GORILLA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Mukura | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | Sunrise | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gorilla | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Amagaju | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Gasogi United | 3 | −1 | 4 |
| 9 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 10 | AS Kigali | 4 | −3 | 4 |
| 11 | APR | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Bugesera | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Police | 3 | −1 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | −1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Rayon Sports | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 18 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | −3 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Gicumbi
Etincelles
Mukura
Sunrise
Marines
Amagaju
Gasogi United
Kiyovu Sports
AS Kigali
APR
Al Hilal Omdurman
Bugesera
Musanze
Al Merreikh
Rayon Sports
Etoile de l'Est