Police v Al Merreikh prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PoliceDrawAl Merreikh

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Police 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Police just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Police 36%, draw 34%, Al Merreikh 30%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Police v Al MerreikhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Police win36%

Draw34%

Al Merreikh win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police

Al Merreikh

12Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Police	4	−1	4
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Police a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Police v Al Merreikh~~0.93 – 0.81

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~10 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police win	36%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Al Merreikh win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Police or draw	70%	–	–
Police clean sheet	44%	–	–
Al Merreikh clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.9%

0123450 17.9 14.0 5.8 1 16.0 13.3 5.3 2 7.5 6.1 2.5 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police down, Al Merreikh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 National Soccer League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 18.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Police at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Merreikh away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Police, 0.81 for Al Merreikh. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POL 0–1 ALM · ALM 1–1 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 7 Sept

POLICE

LWLD1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

AL MERREIKH

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1