Musanze v Police prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MusanzeDrawPolice

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Musanze 34%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Musanze just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Musanze 34%, draw 33%, Police 33%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Musanze v PoliceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Musanze win34%

Draw33%

Police win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Musanze

Police

14Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 16 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Police	4	−1	4
15	Musanze	3	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · musanze winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

34% The market–

Us34%

We make Musanze a 34% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Musanze v Police~~0.92 – 0.91

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Musanze win	34%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Police win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Musanze or draw	67%	–	–
Musanze clean sheet	40%	–	–
Police clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.5%

0123450 16.5 14.4 6.6 2.0 1 14.5 13.5 6.0 2 6.8 6.1 2.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Musanze down, Police across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Musanze at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Police away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Musanze, 0.91 for Police. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUS 0–0 POL · POL 1–1 MUS · POL 3–3 MUS · MUS 0–1 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 7 Sept

MUSANZE

WLL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

POLICE

LWLD1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1