Musanze v Gasogi United prediction · National Soccer League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Musanze 0–1 Gasogi United MUSANZE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Musanze win~~45%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Musanze win at 45%.
2′Much as we predicted: Musanze was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–26
3′Much as we predicted: Musanze was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Musanze win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Musanze win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Musanze win 35%)
46′SECOND HALF Musanze 0–0 Gasogi United
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Musanze 0–1 Gasogi United
FTFULL TIME Musanze 0–1 Gasogi United
FTMusanze 0–1 Gasogi United · Musanze win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Musanze win45%

Draw30%

Gasogi United win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueUbworoherane Football Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Musanze

Gasogi United

26Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Musanze	2	0	3
18	Gasogi United	1	−2	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · musanze winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Musanze a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · musanze win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Musanze win	45%	40%	+5
Draw	30%	31%	−2
Gasogi United win	26%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	36%	−1
Both teams to score	41%	43%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	18%	−2
Musanze or draw	74%	71%	+3
Musanze clean sheet	43%	–	–
Gasogi United clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 12.6 10.4 4.6 1 15.1 13.1 5.6 2 9.4 8.0 3.4 3 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Musanze down, Gasogi United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 National Soccer League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Musanze at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gasogi United away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Musanze, 0.86 for Gasogi United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUS 3–2 GAS · GAS 0–3 MUS · MUS 1–1 GAS · GAS 1–1 MUS

Form · last six in National Soccer League

MUSANZE

DWDLWL0–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

GASOGI UNITED

WDLLLL3–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Etincelles	4	0	7
3	Gorilla	3	+1	6
4	Amagaju	3	+1	4
5	Marines	3	0	4
6	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
7	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
8	APR	1	+2	3
9	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
10	Bugesera	2	+1	3
11	Mukura	2	+1	3
12	Police	2	0	3
13	Musanze	2	0	3
14	Sunrise	2	0	2
15	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
16	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1
17	Etoile de l'Est	3	−3	1
18	Gasogi United	1	−2	0