Mukura v Gicumbi prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MukuraDrawGicumbi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mukura 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mukura are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mukura 52%, draw 26%, Gicumbi 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Mukura v GicumbiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mukura win52%

Draw26%

Gicumbi win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mukura

Gicumbi

8Days since last match16

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
5	Mukura	4	+2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mukura winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Mukura a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mukura v Gicumbi~~1.52 – 0.89

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mukura win	52%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Gicumbi win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Mukura or draw	78%	–	–
Mukura clean sheet	41%	–	–
Gicumbi clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 9.4 7.8 3.6 1 13.5 12.2 5.4 2 10.4 9.0 4.0 3 5.3 4.6 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mukura down, Gicumbi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mukura at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gicumbi away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Mukura, 0.89 for Gicumbi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GIC 3–2 MUK · MUK 2–0 GIC · MUK 1–0 GIC · GIC 1–1 MUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

MUKURA

WLWD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

GICUMBI

WWWL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1