Marines v Gasogi United prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MarinesDrawGasogi United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Marines 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marines are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marines 48%, draw 26%, Gasogi United 26%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Marines v Gasogi UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Marines win48%

Draw26%

Gasogi United win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marines

Gasogi United

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 21 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Marines	4	+4	7
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marines winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Marines a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marines v Gasogi United~~1.52 – 1.05

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~3 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marines win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Gasogi United win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Marines or draw	74%	–	–
Marines clean sheet	35%	–	–
Gasogi United clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.9 7.9 4.3 1 11.4 12.3 6.4 2.3 2 8.8 9.2 4.8 3 4.5 4.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marines down, Gasogi United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 National Soccer League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 18.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marines at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gasogi United away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Marines, 1.05 for Gasogi United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–2 GAS · GAS 0–2 MAR · MAR 3–0 GAS · GAS 1–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

MARINES

WLDW2–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 4–0

GASOGI UNITED

LWDLD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1