Marines v Al Hilal Omdurman prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MarinesDrawAl Hilal Omdurman

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Hilal Omdurman 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Hilal Omdurman are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marines 23%, draw 22%, Al Hilal Omdurman 55%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Marines v Al Hilal OmdurmanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Marines win23%

Draw22%

Al Hilal Omdurman win55%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marines

Al Hilal Omdurman

11Days since last match10

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Marines	4	+4	7
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al hilal omdurman winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Al Hilal Omdurman a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marines v Al Hilal Omdurman~~1.19 – 1.96

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~3 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marines win	23%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Al Hilal Omdurman win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Marines or draw	45%	–	–
Marines clean sheet	14%	–	–
Al Hilal Omdurman clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.6 8.3 8.2 5.3 2.7 1 5.0 10.1 9.6 6.3 3.1 2 3.1 5.9 5.7 3.7 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marines down, Al Hilal Omdurman across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marines at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Hilal Omdurman away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Marines, 1.96 for Al Hilal Omdurman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALH 1–1 MAR · MAR 2–2 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

MARINES

WLDW2–0 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 4–0

AL HILAL OMDURMAN

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1