Kiyovu Sports v AS Kigali prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kiyovu SportsDrawAS Kigali

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kiyovu Sports 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kiyovu Sports are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kiyovu Sports 43%, draw 32%, AS Kigali 25%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Kiyovu Sports v AS KigaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Kiyovu Sports win43%

Draw32%

AS Kigali win25%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kiyovu Sports

AS Kigali

20Days since last match21

Last match: 10 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kiyovu sports winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Kiyovu Sports a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kiyovu Sports v AS Kigali~~1.10 – 0.78

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kiyovu Sports win	43%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
AS Kigali win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Kiyovu Sports or draw	75%	–	–
Kiyovu Sports clean sheet	46%	–	–
AS Kigali clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.6%

0123450 15.6 11.7 4.6 1 16.6 13.2 5.0 2 9.2 7.1 2.8 3 3.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kiyovu Sports down, AS Kigali across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 National Soccer League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 18.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kiyovu Sports at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AS Kigali away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Kiyovu Sports, 0.78 for AS Kigali. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KIY 3–1 ASK · ASK 0–3 KIY · ASK 0–1 KIY · KIY 2–1 ASK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

KIYOVU SPORTS

LLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

AS KIGALI

LDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1