Gicumbi v Al Merreikh prediction · National Soccer League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al Merreikh are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gicumbi 27%, draw 29%, Al Merreikh 44%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Gicumbi v Al MerreikhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Gicumbi win27%

Draw29%

Al Merreikh win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gicumbi

Al Merreikh

9Days since last match30

Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 18 Sept · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al merreikh winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Al Merreikh a 44% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gicumbi v Al Merreikh~~0.93 – 1.27

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 7 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 1~~1 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gicumbi win	27%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Al Merreikh win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Gicumbi or draw	56%	–	–
Gicumbi clean sheet	28%	–	–
Al Merreikh clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.4 13.9 9.0 3.8 1 10.1 13.0 8.1 3.5 2 4.8 6.0 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gicumbi down, Al Merreikh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,296 National Soccer League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 20.0% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gicumbi at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Merreikh away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Gicumbi, 1.27 for Al Merreikh. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GIC 0–3 ALM · ALM 1–0 GIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 7 Sept

GICUMBI

WWWL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

AL MERREIKH

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Marines	4	+4	7
3	Amagaju	5	+4	7
4	Mukura	4	+2	7
5	Gorilla	4	+1	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Sunrise	5	−3	6
8	Gasogi United	3	−1	4
9	Police	4	−1	4
10	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
11	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
12	APR	1	+2	3
13	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
14	Bugesera	2	+1	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1