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Gasogi United v Gorilla
Gasogi UnitedGorillaNational Soccer League · WED 21 OCT · Kigali Pele Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gasogi United win at 39%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Gasogi United was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–30
- 1′KICK-OFF Gasogi United v Gorilla
- 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Gasogi United win 36%)
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gasogi United win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Gasogi United 0–0 Gorilla
- 46′HALF-TIME Gasogi United 0–0 Gorilla
- 50′We said Gasogi United at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–22
- 58′We said Gasogi United at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Gasogi United win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
- 68′We said Gasogi United at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–16
- 76′We said Gasogi United at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–75–11
- 81′We said Gasogi United at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gasogi United win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
- 88′We said Gasogi United at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- 93′Full time, 0–0. We called Gasogi United at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Gasogi United 0–0 Gorilla
- FTGasogi United 0–0 Gorilla · Gasogi United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Gasogi United are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Gasogi United 39%, draw 31%, Gorilla 30%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Gasogi United win39%Gorilla win30%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 3
VenueKigali Pele Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Gasogi UnitedMINGorillaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gasogi United
Gorilla
Last match: 18 Oct · National Soccer League
Last match: 16 Oct · National Soccer League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gorilla | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Gasogi United | 4 | −3 | 4 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Gasogi United a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasogi United win | 39% | 31% | +8 |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Gorilla win | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 12% | +2 |
| Gasogi United or draw | 70% | 65% | +5 |
| Gasogi United clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| Gorilla clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept
GASOGI UNITED
GORILLA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gicumbi | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Marines | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Amagaju | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 |  Mukura | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Gorilla | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Etincelles | 5 | −4 | 7 |
| 7 |  Bugesera | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 |  Sunrise | 5 | −3 | 6 |
| 9 |  Police | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 10 |  Kiyovu Sports | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gasogi United | 4 | −3 | 4 |
| 12 |  AS Kigali | 4 | −3 | 4 |
| 13 |  APR | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 15 |  Musanze | 3 | −1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Etoile de l'Est | 4 | −3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |  Rayon Sports | 2 | −1 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.