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Gasogi United v Bugesera
Gasogi UnitedBugeseraNational Soccer League · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Gasogi United win at 37%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Gasogi United 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Gasogi United v Bugesera
- 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Gasogi United win 33%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Gasogi United 0–0 Bugesera
- 46′SECOND HALF Gasogi United 0–0 Bugesera
- 49′Bugesera find the net on 49′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–72
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Gasogi United 0–1 Bugesera
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Gasogi United win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Bugesera win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
- 50′We said Gasogi United at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–21–73
- 50′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 6–21–73
- 55′Bugesera ahead on 50′ through D. Nshimirimana. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–20–75
- 58′We said Gasogi United at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
- 72′A goal for Bugesera on 72′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Gasogi United 0–2 Bugesera
- FTFULL TIME Gasogi United 0–2 Bugesera
- FTGasogi United 0–2 Bugesera · Gasogi United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Gasogi United just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Gasogi United 37%, draw 30%, Bugesera 33%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Gasogi United win37%Bugesera win33%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 5
Match timeline
All events
Gasogi UnitedMINBugeseraEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Gasogi United
Bugesera
Last match: 14 Oct · National Soccer League
Last match: 10 Oct · National Soccer League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gasogi United | 3 | −1 | 4 |
| 14 | Bugesera | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Gasogi United a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gasogi United win | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | −1 |
| Bugesera win | 33% | 31% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 19% | −2 |
| Gasogi United or draw | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Gasogi United clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Bugesera clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept
GASOGI UNITED
BUGESERA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gicumbi | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Marines | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 |  Amagaju | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 |  Mukura | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 |  Gorilla | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Etincelles | 5 | −4 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sunrise | 5 | −3 | 6 |
| 8 | Gasogi United | 3 | −1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Police | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 10 |  Kiyovu Sports | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 11 |  AS Kigali | 4 | −3 | 4 |
| 12 |  APR | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 |  Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 14 | Bugesera | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Musanze | 3 | −1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Etoile de l'Est | 4 | −3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |  Rayon Sports | 2 | −1 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.