Etoile de l'Est v Mukura

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mukura win at 39%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Mukura was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
3. 2′KICK-OFF Etoile de l'Est v Mukura
4. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Mukura win 34%)
5. 45′HALF-TIME Etoile de l'Est 0–0 Mukura
6. 46′SECOND HALF Etoile de l'Est 0–0 Mukura
7. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Mukura win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
8. 50′Much as we predicted: Mukura was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 28% now. 0–0 · 23–49–28
9. 52′We said Mukura at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 22–51–27
10. 58′Etoile de l'Est find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
11. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Etoile de l'Est 1–0 Mukura
12. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Mukura win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
13. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Etoile de l'Est win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
14. 59′We said Mukura at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
15. 59′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 76–20–4
16. 79′A goal for Mukura on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 9–79–11
17. 79′We said Mukura at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–1 · 9–79–11
18. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Etoile de l'Est 1–1 Mukura
19. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Etoile de l'Est win 9%)
20. 82′We said Mukura at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
21. FTFULL TIME Etoile de l'Est 1–1 Mukura
22. FTEtoile de l'Est 1–1 Mukura · Mukura win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.