Etoile de l'Est v Gorilla prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Etoile de l'EstDrawGorilla

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gorilla 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gorilla just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Etoile de l'Est 33%, draw 32%, Gorilla 35%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Etoile de l'Est v GorillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the plans

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Etoile de l'Est win33%

Draw32%

Gorilla win35%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Etoile de l'Est

Gorilla

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 24 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gorilla winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Gorilla a 35% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. The market has not priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Etoile de l'Est v Gorilla~~0.94 – 0.96

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 11~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	US	MARKET	GAP
Etoile de l'Est win	33%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Gorilla win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Etoile de l'Est or draw	65%	–	–
Etoile de l'Est clean sheet	38%	–	–
Gorilla clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market has not priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%

0123450 15.3 14.2 6.9 2.3 1 13.8 13.5 6.4 2.1 2 6.6 6.3 3.0 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Etoile de l'Est down, Gorilla across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Etoile de l'Est at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gorilla away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Etoile de l'Est, 0.96 for Gorilla. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ETO 0–1 GOR · GOR 1–0 ETO · ETO 0–0 GOR · GOR 2–3 ETO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

ETOILE DE L'EST

LDLD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

GORILLA

WLWDDW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1