Etincelles v Marines prediction · National Soccer League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Etincelles 0–4 Marines ETINCELLES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Etincelles win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.712

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Etincelles win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Etincelles 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Etincelles v Marines
43′A goal for Marines on 43′. 0–0 · 34–39–27
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Etincelles win 34%)
44′We said Etincelles at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–66
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–66
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Etincelles 0–1 Marines
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Etincelles win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Marines win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 23%)
45′HALF-TIME Etincelles 0–1 Marines
46′SECOND HALF Etincelles 0–1 Marines
47′We said Etincelles at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Etincelles 1–1 Marines
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Etincelles win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Marines win 26%)
49′Etincelles find the net on 47′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–42–26
49′Marines find the net on 49′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
49′We said Etincelles at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Etincelles 0–2 Marines
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Etincelles
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Etincelles win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Marines win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 7%)
56′Marines ahead on 48′ through O. Usabimana. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
56′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
68′A goal for Marines on 68′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
68′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Etincelles 0–3 Marines
73′O. Usabimana scores for Marines on 67′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
80′Marines score on 80′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Etincelles 0–4 Marines
81′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Etincelles 0–4 Marines
FTEtincelles 0–4 Marines · Etincelles win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Etincelles are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Etincelles 42%, draw 26%, Marines 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Etincelles v MarinesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Etincelles win42%

Draw26%

Marines win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueUmuganda Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Etincelles

Marines

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Etincelles	4	0	7
6	Marines	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etincelles winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Etincelles a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Etincelles v Marines~~1.41 – 1.19

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Etincelles win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Marines win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Etincelles or draw	68%	–	–
Etincelles clean sheet	30%	–	–
Marines clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.6 8.7 5.3 2.1 1 10.3 12.5 7.4 2.9 2 7.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Etincelles down, Marines across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,293 National Soccer League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Etincelles at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Marines away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Etincelles, 1.19 for Marines. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–3 ETI · ETI 0–2 MAR · ETI 0–0 MAR · MAR 2–0 ETI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

ETINCELLES

DWWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

MARINES

WLD2–0 · 2–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Gorilla	4	+1	7
3	Etincelles	4	0	7
4	Mukura	3	+2	6
5	Sunrise	4	+1	6
6	Marines	3	0	4
7	Amagaju	4	0	4
8	Gasogi United	3	−1	4
9	Police	4	−1	4
10	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
11	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
12	APR	1	+2	3
13	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
14	Bugesera	2	+1	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
17	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1
18	Etoile de l'Est	3	−3	1