Etincelles v APR prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EtincellesDrawAPR

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · APR 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

APR are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Etincelles 22%, draw 27%, APR 51%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Etincelles v APRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Etincelles win22%

Draw27%

APR win51%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueUmuganda Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Etincelles

APR

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
13	APR	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apr winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make APR a 51% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Etincelles v APR~~0.83 – 1.43

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~6 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Etincelles win	22%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
APR win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Etincelles or draw	49%	–	–
Etincelles clean sheet	24%	–	–
APR clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 10.7 14.7 10.6 5.1 1 8.5 12.5 8.7 4.2 2 3.6 5.1 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Etincelles down, APR across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Etincelles at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). APR away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Etincelles, 1.43 for APR. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ETI 2–1 APR · APR 2–1 ETI · APR 2–2 ETI · ETI 0–0 APR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

ETINCELLES

DWWLL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–4

APR

W4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1