Bugesera v Rayon Sports prediction · National Soccer League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Rayon Sports just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bugesera 33%, draw 30%, Rayon Sports 37%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Bugesera v Rayon SportsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Bugesera win33%

Draw30%

Rayon Sports win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bugesera

Rayon Sports

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayon sports winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Rayon Sports a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bugesera v Rayon Sports~~1.01 – 1.08

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~7 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rayon Sports win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bugesera win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Rayon Sports win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Bugesera or draw	63%	–	–
Bugesera clean sheet	34%	–	–
Rayon Sports clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.7 13.2 7.3 2.7 1 12.2 13.6 7.2 2.6 2 6.3 6.7 3.6 3 2.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bugesera down, Rayon Sports across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 National Soccer League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 18.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bugesera at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rayon Sports away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Bugesera, 1.08 for Rayon Sports. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAY 2–0 BUG · BUG 2–1 RAY · BUG 2–1 RAY · RAY 2–0 BUG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 15 Sept

BUGESERA

LWW0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

RAYON SPORTS

DL1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Gorilla	5	+1	8
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	5	+4	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1