Bugesera v APR prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BugeseraDrawAPR

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · APR 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

APR are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bugesera 26%, draw 29%, APR 45%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Bugesera v APRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bugesera win26%

Draw29%

APR win45%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bugesera

APR

9Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
13	APR	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apr winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make APR a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bugesera v APR~~0.92 – 1.30

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~7 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bugesera win	26%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
APR win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Bugesera or draw	55%	–	–
Bugesera clean sheet	28%	–	–
APR clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.2 13.9 9.1 4.0 1 9.8 13.1 8.3 3.6 2 4.6 6.0 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bugesera down, APR across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bugesera at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). APR away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Bugesera, 1.30 for APR. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUG 2–2 APR · APR 2–1 BUG · BUG 0–1 APR · APR 2–0 BUG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 15 Sept

BUGESERA

LWW0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

APR

W4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1