AS Kigali v APR prediction · National Soccer League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

APR are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Kigali 25%, draw 30%, APR 45%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on AS Kigali v APRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

AS Kigali win25%

Draw30%

APR win45%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueKigali Pele Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Kigali

APR

7Days since last match30

Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 16 Sept · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
11	APR	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apr winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

45% The market–

Us45%

We make APR a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Kigali v APR~~0.80 – 1.18

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Kigali win	25%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
APR win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
AS Kigali or draw	55%	–	–
AS Kigali clean sheet	31%	–	–
APR clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.2%

0123450 14.0 16.2 9.6 3.8 1 10.9 13.0 7.6 3.0 2 4.4 5.2 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Kigali down, APR across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,292 National Soccer League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Kigali at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). APR away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for AS Kigali, 1.18 for APR. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~APR 2–1 ASK · ASK 1–1 APR · APR 2–1 ASK · ASK 0–1 APR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

AS KIGALI

LDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

APR

W4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Etincelles	4	0	7
3	Mukura	3	+2	6
4	Sunrise	4	+1	6
5	Gorilla	3	+1	6
6	Marines	3	0	4
7	Amagaju	4	0	4
8	Gasogi United	3	−1	4
9	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
10	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
11	APR	1	+2	3
12	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
13	Bugesera	2	+1	3
14	Police	3	−1	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
17	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1
18	Etoile de l'Est	3	−3	1