APR v Kiyovu Sports prediction · National Soccer League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

APR are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: APR 55%, draw 27%, Kiyovu Sports 18%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on APR v Kiyovu SportsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

APR win55%

Draw27%

Kiyovu Sports win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Amahoro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

APR

Kiyovu Sports

7Days since last match13

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
13	APR	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apr winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

55% The market–

Us55%

We make APR a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · APR v Kiyovu Sports~~1.48 – 0.72

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
APR win	55%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kiyovu Sports win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
APR or draw	82%	–	–
APR clean sheet	49%	–	–
Kiyovu Sports clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.1%

0123450 11.4 7.9 2.9 1 16.1 11.9 4.3 2 12.0 8.6 3.1 3 5.9 4.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+APR down, Kiyovu Sports across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 National Soccer League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 18.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

APR at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kiyovu Sports away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for APR, 0.72 for Kiyovu Sports. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~APR 1–1 KIY · KIY 0–0 APR · KIY 1–2 APR · APR 3–0 KIY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

APR

W4–2

KIYOVU SPORTS

LLWD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Gorilla	5	+1	8
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	5	+4	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1