Amagaju v Sunrise prediction · National Soccer League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Amagaju 4–0 Sunrise AMAGAJU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Amagaju win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amagaju win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Amagaju was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–32–31
1′KICK-OFF Amagaju v Sunrise
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Amagaju win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Amagaju 0–0 Sunrise
46′SECOND HALF Amagaju 0–0 Sunrise
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Amagaju win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
52′A goal for Amagaju on 52′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Amagaju 1–0 Sunrise
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Amagaju win: 36% at kick-off, 78% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Amagaju win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
54′A goal for Amagaju on 52′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
54′We published Amagaju at 36%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
55′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 79–18–3
58′We published Amagaju at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
59′Amagaju score on 59′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Amagaju 2–0 Sunrise
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Amagaju win: 36% at kick-off, 97% now
60′We published Amagaju at 36%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
67′Amagaju find the net on 66′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′We published Amagaju at 36%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Amagaju 3–0 Sunrise
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′A goal for Amagaju on 82′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Amagaju 4–0 Sunrise
83′4 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
86′P. Mosimango scores for Amagaju on 81′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Amagaju 4–0 Sunrise
FTAmagaju 4–0 Sunrise · Amagaju win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Amagaju just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Amagaju 36%, draw 32%, Sunrise 32%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Amagaju v SunriseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Amagaju win36%

Draw32%

Sunrise win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade Huye

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amagaju

Sunrise

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · National Soccer League

Last match: 14 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sunrise	4	+1	6
7	Amagaju	4	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amagaju winFirst published 12 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Amagaju a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Amagaju v Sunrise~~1.00 – 0.90

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amagaju win	36%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Sunrise win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Amagaju or draw	68%	–	–
Amagaju clean sheet	41%	–	–
Sunrise clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 13.4 6.1 1 14.7 13.4 6.0 2 7.4 6.6 3.0 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amagaju down, Sunrise across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,293 National Soccer League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Amagaju at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sunrise away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Amagaju, 0.90 for Sunrise. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AMA 1–0 SUN · SUN 2–1 AMA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 5 Sept

AMAGAJU

WLDL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

SUNRISE

DDWD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Gorilla	4	+1	7
3	Etincelles	4	0	7
4	Mukura	3	+2	6
5	Sunrise	4	+1	6
6	Marines	3	0	4
7	Amagaju	4	0	4
8	Gasogi United	3	−1	4
9	Police	4	−1	4
10	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
11	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
12	APR	1	+2	3
13	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
14	Bugesera	2	+1	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
17	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1
18	Etoile de l'Est	3	−3	1