Amagaju v Mukura prediction · National Soccer League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Amagaju 1–2 Mukura MUKURA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mukura win~~35%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.650

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mukura win at 35%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Mukura 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 33–33–35
5′Little has changed for our model: Mukura 35% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 32–33–34
42′29′ and it is 0–1: Mukura have scored. 0–1 · 6–20–74
44′29′ and it is 0–1: Mukura have scored. 0–1 · 5–20–75
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Mukura win: 35% at kick-off, 74% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Mukura win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SECOND HALF Amagaju 0–1 Mukura
53′⚽ GOAL · 29' Amagaju 0–1 Mukura
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Amagaju 1–1 Mukura
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Amagaju 2–1 Mukura
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Amagaju 1–2 Mukura
FTFULL TIME Amagaju 1–2 Mukura
FTAmagaju 1–2 Mukura · Mukura win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Amagaju win33%

Draw33%

Mukura win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStade Huye

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Amagaju

Mukura

23Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Amagaju	3	+1	4
11	Mukura	2	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mukura winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

35% The market34%

Us35%

~~Market~~34%

We make Mukura a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mukura win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amagaju win	33%	34%	−1
Draw	33%	32%	0
Mukura win	35%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Both teams to score	37%	42%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	12%	17%	−5
Amagaju or draw	65%	66%	−1
Amagaju clean sheet	39%	–	–
Mukura clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.8%

0123450 15.8 14.6 7.0 2.2 1 14.0 13.5 6.3 2.0 2 6.5 6.1 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amagaju down, Mukura across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 National Soccer League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Amagaju at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mukura away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Amagaju, 0.95 for Mukura. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MUK 0–0 AMA · AMA 0–1 MUK · AMA 1–1 MUK · MUK 1–0 AMA

Form · last six in National Soccer League

AMAGAJU

WLDWLD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

MUKURA

WDLDWL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Etincelles	4	0	7
3	Gorilla	3	+1	6
4	Amagaju	3	+1	4
5	Marines	3	0	4
6	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
7	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
8	APR	1	+2	3
9	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
10	Bugesera	2	+1	3
11	Mukura	2	+1	3
12	Police	2	0	3
13	Musanze	2	0	3
14	Sunrise	2	0	2
15	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
16	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1
17	Etoile de l'Est	3	−3	1
18	Gasogi United	1	−2	0