Al Merreikh v Mukura prediction · National Soccer League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al MerreikhDrawMukura

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Merreikh 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Merreikh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Merreikh 46%, draw 30%, Mukura 24%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Al Merreikh v MukuraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Al Merreikh win46%

Draw30%

Mukura win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAl Merreikh Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Merreikh

Mukura

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · National Soccer League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al merreikh winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Al Merreikh a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Merreikh v Mukura~~1.21 – 0.78

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~17 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Merreikh win	46%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Mukura win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Al Merreikh or draw	76%	–	–
Al Merreikh clean sheet	46%	–	–
Mukura clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 14.2 10.5 4.2 1 16.4 12.9 5.0 2 10.0 7.7 3.0 3 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Merreikh down, Mukura across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,299 National Soccer League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.2% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Merreikh at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mukura away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Al Merreikh, 0.78 for Mukura. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUK 1–0 ALM · ALM 1–1 MUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

AL MERREIKH

D0–0

MUKURA

WLWD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gorilla	6	+2	11
2	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	6	+3	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1