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Al Merreikh v Etoile de l'Est

Al Merreikh

–Postponed

Etoile de l'Est

National Soccer League · SAT 10 OCT · Al Merreikh Stadium

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Merreikh win57%

Draw27%

Etoile de l'Est win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Al Merreikh Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al merreikh winPublished 10 Oct 01:01

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Al Merreikh a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Merreikh win	57%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Etoile de l'Est win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Al Merreikh or draw	84%	–	–
Al Merreikh clean sheet	54%	–	–
Etoile de l'Est clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%

0123450 13.1 7.8 2.5 1 18.0 11.4 3.5 2 13.0 8.0 2.5 3 6.3 3.9 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Merreikh down, Etoile de l'Est across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 National Soccer League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Merreikh at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Etoile de l'Est away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Al Merreikh, 0.62 for Etoile de l'Est. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in National Soccer League

AL MERREIKH

LLDLLD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–0

ETOILE DE L'EST

WWLLDL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	3	+3	9
2	Etincelles	3	+2	7
3	Amagaju	3	+1	4
4	APR	1	+2	3
5	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
6	Mukura	2	+1	3
7	Marines	2	0	3
8	Police	2	0	3
9	Gorilla	2	0	3
10	Musanze	2	0	3
11	Kiyovu Sports	3	−1	3
12	Sunrise	2	0	2
13	Rayon Sports	1	0	1
14	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
15	Etoile de l'Est	3	−3	1
16	AS Kigali	3	−4	1
17	Bugesera	1	−1	0
18	Gasogi United	1	−2	0