Al Merreikh v AS Kigali prediction · National Soccer League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al Merreikh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Merreikh 46%, draw 32%, AS Kigali 22%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Al Merreikh v AS KigaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Al Merreikh win46%

Draw32%

AS Kigali win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAl Merreikh Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Merreikh

AS Kigali

6Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 9 Oct · National Soccer League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al merreikh winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Al Merreikh a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Merreikh v AS Kigali~~1.15 – 0.69

~~Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~17 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Merreikh win	46%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
AS Kigali win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Al Merreikh or draw	78%	–	–
Al Merreikh clean sheet	50%	–	–
AS Kigali clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%

0123450 16.3 10.8 3.8 1 18.0 12.6 4.3 2 10.5 7.1 2.5 3 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Merreikh down, AS Kigali across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 National Soccer League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National Soccer League matches have gone over 2.5 in 18.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Merreikh at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AS Kigali away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Al Merreikh, 0.69 for AS Kigali. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ASK 0–1 ALM · ALM 2–1 ASK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National Soccer League this season · since 6 Sept

AL MERREIKH

D0–0

AS KIGALI

LDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gicumbi	4	+2	9
2	Gorilla	5	+1	8
3	Marines	4	+4	7
4	Amagaju	5	+4	7
5	Mukura	4	+2	7
6	Etincelles	5	−4	7
7	Bugesera	3	+3	6
8	Sunrise	5	−3	6
9	Gasogi United	5	−3	5
10	Police	4	−1	4
11	Kiyovu Sports	4	−1	4
12	AS Kigali	4	−3	4
13	APR	1	+2	3
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	1	+2	3
15	Musanze	3	−1	3
16	Etoile de l'Est	4	−3	2
17	Al Merreikh	1	0	1
18	Rayon Sports	2	−1	1