Zenit U19 v Almaz Antey U19 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Zenit U19 7–1 Almaz Antey U19 ZENIT U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zenit U19 win~~77%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.081

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.122

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit U19 win at 77%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zenit U19 was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 77–12–11
1′KICK-OFF Zenit U19 v Almaz Antey U19
3′Zenit U19 score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–7–4
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Zenit U19 1–0 Almaz Antey U19
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Zenit U19 win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
4′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–7–4
36′Zenit U19 find the net on 35′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′Goals are coming at about the 4.8 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Zenit U19 2–0 Almaz Antey U19
45′HALF-TIME Zenit U19 2–0 Almaz Antey U19
46′SECOND HALF Zenit U19 2–0 Almaz Antey U19
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Zenit U19 win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
58′A goal for Zenit U19 on 58′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Zenit U19 3–0 Almaz Antey U19
59′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′Almaz Antey U19 score on 68′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Zenit U19 3–1 Almaz Antey U19
80′Zenit U19 find the net on 79′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zenit U19 4–1 Almaz Antey U19
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.8 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
82′A goal for Zenit U19 on 82′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Zenit U19 5–1 Almaz Antey U19
83′Zenit U19 score on 83′ to make it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
83′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.8 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Zenit U19 6–1 Almaz Antey U19
90′Zenit U19 find the net on 90′. 7–1. 7–1 · 100–0–0
90′8 goals already, more than the 4.8 we expected for the whole match. 7–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Zenit U19 7–1 Almaz Antey U19
FTFULL TIME Zenit U19 7–1 Almaz Antey U19
FTZenit U19 7–1 Almaz Antey U19 · Zenit U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zenit U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zenit U19 77%, draw 12%, Almaz Antey U19 11%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Zenit U19 v Almaz Antey U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Zenit U19 win77%

Draw12%

Almaz Antey U19 win11%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zenit U19

Almaz Antey U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zenit U19	25	+38	54
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	−2	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zenit u19 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

77% The market72%

Us77%

~~Market~~72%

We make Zenit U19 a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zenit U19 v Almaz Antey U19~~3.49 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 54 v 41~~2 v 7

~~The market · Zenit U19 win~~72% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zenit U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zenit U19 win	77%	72%	+5
Draw	12%	16%	−4
Almaz Antey U19 win	11%	12%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	85%	78%	+7
Both teams to score	71%	67%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	95%	87%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	70%	61%	+9
Zenit U19 or draw	89%	88%	+1
Zenit U19 clean sheet	27%	–	–
Almaz Antey U19 clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.3%

0123450 1 3.0 3.9 2.6 2 5.0 6.5 4.3 3 5.6 7.3 4.9 2.2 4 4.8 6.3 4.2 5 3.4 4.4 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Zenit U19 down, Almaz Antey U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (85.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zenit U19 at home: 3.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Almaz Antey U19 away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.49 goals for Zenit U19, 1.35 for Almaz Antey U19. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALM 0–2 ZEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug

ZENIT U19

LWWWWW0–3 · 6–3 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–1

ALMAZ ANTEY U19

DWWWWW2–2 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	25	+38	54
3	Krasnodar U19	25	+33	53
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	+32	51
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	+12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	−2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	25	−4	31
9	Rostov U19	25	−7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	−23	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	25	−34	22
15	Fakel U19	25	−25	16
16	Rubin Kazan U20	25	−34	15