Ural U20 v Nizhny Novgorod U19 prediction · Youth Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ural U20DrawNizhny Novgorod U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ural U20 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ural U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ural U20 48%, draw 22%, Nizhny Novgorod U19 30%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Ural U20 v Nizhny Novgorod U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Ural U20 win48%

Draw22%

Nizhny Novgorod U19 win30%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 08:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ural U20

Nizhny Novgorod U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Ural U20	27	−26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	−40	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ural u20 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Ural U20 a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ural U20 v Nizhny Novgorod U19~~1.92 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 25 v 22~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ural U20 win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Nizhny Novgorod U19 win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Ural U20 or draw	70%	–	–
Ural U20 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nizhny Novgorod U19 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.2 3.7 1 6.7 9.4 6.9 3.4 2 6.3 9.0 6.5 3.2 3 4.0 5.7 4.2 2.0 4 2.8 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ural U20 down, Nizhny Novgorod U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Youth Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.1% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ural U20 at home: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nizhny Novgorod U19 away: 1.00 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Ural U20, 1.46 for Nizhny Novgorod U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NIZ 1–0 URA · URA 2–1 NIZ · NIZ 0–0 URA · URA 1–1 NIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept

URAL U20

LWLWLL0–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 5–7 · 0–3

NIZHNY NOVGOROD U19

LWLWLL1–5 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	27	+53	65
2	Zenit U19	27	+45	60
3	Krasnodar U19	27	+38	57
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	+32	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	27	+20	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	+12	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	27	−5	44
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	−6	32
9	Rostov U19	27	−9	32
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	27	−8	31
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	27	−24	28
12	Chertanovo U20	27	−25	26
13	Ural U20	27	−26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	−40	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	27	−30	21
16	Fakel U19	27	−27	19