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Ural U20 v Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Ural U20
5–7Full time
Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Youth Championship · FRI 16 OCT · Central Stadium(Yekaterinburg)

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 11:31
Ural U20 5–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 LOKOMOTIV MOSKVA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win66%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.174
The market’s Brier score0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win at 66%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 16–18–66
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ural U20 v Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  4. 3′Lokomotiv Moskva U19 score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–10–84
  5. 3′We published Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 66%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 5–10–84
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Ural U20 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
  8. 8′Lokomotiv Moskva U19 find the net on 8′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  9. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Ural U20 0–2 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  10. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 66% at kick-off, 95% now
  11. 9′We published Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 66%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  12. 28′A goal for Lokomotiv Moskva U19 on 28′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  13. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Ural U20 0–3 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 66% at kick-off, 99% now
  15. 32′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  16. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Ural U20 1–3 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  17. 33′Ural U20 score on 32′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
  18. 41′Lokomotiv Moskva U19 find the net on 41′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  19. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Ural U20 1–4 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  20. 42′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Ural U20 1–4 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Ural U20 1–4 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  23. 50′We published Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 66%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  24. 51′A goal for Lokomotiv Moskva U19 on 51′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  25. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Ural U20 1–5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  26. 52′6 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  27. 56′Ural U20 score on 56′ to make it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  28. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Ural U20 2–5 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  29. 57′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  30. 64′Lokomotiv Moskva U19 find the net on 64′. 2–6. 2–6 · 0–0–100
  31. 64′8 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–6 · 0–0–100
  32. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ural U20 2–6 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  33. 69′A goal for Lokomotiv Moskva U19 on 69′ — 2–7. 2–7 · 0–0–100
  34. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ural U20 2–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  35. 70′That is 9, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–7 · 0–0–100
  36. 87′Ural U20 score on 87′ to make it 3–7. 3–7 · 0–0–100
  37. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Ural U20 3–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  38. 88′10 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–7 · 0–0–100
  39. 91′Ural U20 find the net on 90′. 4–7. 4–7 · 0–0–100
  40. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ural U20 4–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  41. 92′That is 11, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–7 · 0–0–100
  42. 94′A goal for Ural U20 on 90′ — 5–7. 5–7 · 0–0–100
  43. 94′12 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–7 · 0–0–100
  44. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Ural U20 5–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  45. FTFULL TIME Ural U20 5–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
  46. FTUral U20 5–7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19 · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ural U20 16%, draw 18%, Lokomotiv Moskva U19 66%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ural U20 v Lokomotiv Moskva U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Ural U20 win16%
Draw18%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win66%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueCentral Stadium(Yekaterinburg)

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ural U20

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Lokomotiv Moskva U1925+2047
12Ural U2025−2125

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv moskva u19 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
66% The market66%
Us66%
Market66%

We make Lokomotiv Moskva U19 a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ural U20 v Lokomotiv Moskva U191.07 – 2.38
Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 AugW2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 25 v 4712 v 5
The market · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win66% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 10 OCT 03:5816 OCT 08:37
Our probability · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ural U20 win16%17%−1
Draw18%17%+1
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win66%66%0
Over 2.5 goals67%74%−7
Both teams to score59%67%−8
Over 1.5 goals85%89%−4
Over 3.5 goals45%54%−9
Ural U20 or draw34%34%0
Ural U20 clean sheet10%––
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%
0123450 3.2 7.7 8.9 7.0 4.3 2.11 3.6 8.0 9.3 7.3 4.4 2.22 4.4 5.0 3.9 2.3 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ural U20 down, Lokomotiv Moskva U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsLOK 5–1 URA · LOK 4–1 URA · URA 1–0 LOK · LOK 5–0 URA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug

URAL U20

LLLWLW0–4 · 3–6 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

LOKOMOTIV MOSKVA U19

LWLWLL2–3 · 3–1 · 1–6 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1CSKA Moskva U1925+4659
2Zenit U1925+3854
3Krasnodar U1925+3353
4Rodina Moscow U1925+3251
5Lokomotiv Moskva U1925+2047
6Akademiya Konoplev U2025+1244
7Almaz Antey U1925−241
8Spartak Moskva U1925−431
9Rostov U1925−731
10Dinamo Moskva U1925−829
11Dynamo Makhachkala U1925−2327
12Ural U2025−2125
13Chertanovo U2025−2323
14Nizhny Novgorod U1925−3422
15Fakel U1925−2516
16Rubin Kazan U2025−3415

The competition's standings before kick-off.