Rodina Moscow U19 v Fakel U19 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31

Rodina Moscow U19 5–1 Fakel U19 RODINA MOSCOW U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rodina Moscow U19 win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.087

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rodina Moscow U19 win at 76%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rodina Moscow U19 was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–14–10
1′KICK-OFF Rodina Moscow U19 v Fakel U19
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 66% now
35′Rodina Moscow U19 find the net on 35′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Rodina Moscow U19 1–0 Fakel U19
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
36′We published Rodina Moscow U19 at 76%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
42′A goal for Rodina Moscow U19 on 41′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
42′We published Rodina Moscow U19 at 76%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Rodina Moscow U19 2–0 Fakel U19
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 97% now
43′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Rodina Moscow U19 2–0 Fakel U19
46′SECOND HALF Rodina Moscow U19 2–0 Fakel U19
55′Fakel U19 score on 55′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–10–2
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Rodina Moscow U19 2–1 Fakel U19
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
67′Rodina Moscow U19 find the net on 67′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Rodina Moscow U19 3–1 Fakel U19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 99% now
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Rodina Moscow U19
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 89% now
72′We published Rodina Moscow U19 at 76%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
74′Rodina Moscow U19 find the net on 73′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Rodina Moscow U19 3–1 Fakel U19
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Rodina Moscow U19 win: 76% at kick-off, 99% now
77′A goal for Rodina Moscow U19 on 76′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′We published Rodina Moscow U19 at 76%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Rodina Moscow U19 4–1 Fakel U19
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
80′Rodina Moscow U19 score on 79′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
80′6 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Rodina Moscow U19 5–1 Fakel U19
FTFULL TIME Rodina Moscow U19 5–1 Fakel U19
FTRodina Moscow U19 5–1 Fakel U19 · Rodina Moscow U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodina Moscow U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moscow U19 76%, draw 14%, Fakel U19 10%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moscow U19 v Fakel U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moscow U19 win76%

Draw14%

Fakel U19 win10%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueSapsan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moscow U19

Fakel U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	+32	51
15	Fakel U19	25	−25	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodina moscow u19 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Rodina Moscow U19 a 76% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodina Moscow U19 v Fakel U19~~2.86 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 51 v 16~~4 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodina Moscow U19 win	76%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Fakel U19 win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Rodina Moscow U19 or draw	90%	–	–
Rodina Moscow U19 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Fakel U19 clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.0%

0123450 2.3 2.3 1 6.6 6.0 2.9 2 9.0 8.4 4.0 3 8.4 7.9 3.8 4 6.0 5.7 2.7 5 3.5 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moscow U19 down, Fakel U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodina Moscow U19 at home: 5.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fakel U19 away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.86 goals for Rodina Moscow U19, 0.95 for Fakel U19. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FAK 0–1 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug

RODINA MOSCOW U19

WLWLWW8–0 · 1–3 · 6–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2

FAKEL U19

DDLLLW2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–6 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	25	+46	59
2	Zenit U19	25	+38	54
3	Krasnodar U19	25	+33	53
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	+32	51
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	+12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	−2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	25	−4	31
9	Rostov U19	25	−7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	−23	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	25	−23	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	25	−34	22
15	Fakel U19	25	−25	16
16	Rubin Kazan U20	25	−34	15