Rodina Moscow U19 v Chertanovo U20 prediction · Youth Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rodina Moscow U19DrawChertanovo U20

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rodina Moscow U19 77%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodina Moscow U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moscow U19 77%, draw 12%, Chertanovo U20 11%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moscow U19 v Chertanovo U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moscow U19 win77%

Draw12%

Chertanovo U20 win11%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueSapsan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moscow U19

Chertanovo U20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	+32	54
12	Chertanovo U20	27	−25	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodina moscow u19 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Rodina Moscow U19 a 77% chance to win. The model expects 3.4–1.3, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodina Moscow U19 v Chertanovo U20~~3.40 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 54 v 26~~4 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodina Moscow U19 win	77%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Chertanovo U20 win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	84%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	68%	–	–
Rodina Moscow U19 or draw	89%	–	–
Rodina Moscow U19 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Chertanovo U20 clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.5%

0123450 1 3.5 4.2 2.6 2 5.6 6.9 4.3 3 6.1 7.5 4.7 2.0 4 5.1 6.3 4.0 5 3.5 4.3 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moscow U19 down, Chertanovo U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (86.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Youth Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.1% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodina Moscow U19 at home: 5.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chertanovo U20 away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.40 goals for Rodina Moscow U19, 1.26 for Chertanovo U20. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–2 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept

RODINA MOSCOW U19

WLWWWL6–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 1–5

CHERTANOVO U20

LLWLLW1–2 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	27	+53	65
2	Zenit U19	27	+45	60
3	Krasnodar U19	27	+38	57
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	+32	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	27	+20	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	+12	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	27	−5	44
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	−6	32
9	Rostov U19	27	−9	32
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	27	−8	31
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	27	−24	28
12	Chertanovo U20	27	−25	26
13	Ural U20	27	−26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	−40	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	27	−30	21
16	Fakel U19	27	−27	19