Nizhny Novgorod U19 v Zenit U19 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Nizhny Novgorod U19 1–2 Zenit U19 ZENIT U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zenit U19 win~~77%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.077

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.133

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit U19 win at 77%.
1′Zenit U19 score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–7–90
1′KICK-OFF Nizhny Novgorod U19 v Zenit U19
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Nizhny Novgorod U19 0–1 Zenit U19
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Zenit U19 win: 77% at kick-off, 90% now
2′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 3–7–90
11′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–1 · 3–7–89
27′Much as we predicted: Zenit U19 was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 88% now. 0–1 · 3–8–88
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 0–1 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME Nizhny Novgorod U19 0–1 Zenit U19
46′SECOND HALF Nizhny Novgorod U19 0–1 Zenit U19
80′Zenit U19 find the net on 80′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nizhny Novgorod U19 0–2 Zenit U19
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Zenit U19 win: 77% at kick-off, over 99% now
92′A goal for Nizhny Novgorod U19 on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Nizhny Novgorod U19 1–2 Zenit U19
93′We published Zenit U19 at 77%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Nizhny Novgorod U19 1–2 Zenit U19
FTNizhny Novgorod U19 1–2 Zenit U19 · Zenit U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zenit U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nizhny Novgorod U19 10%, draw 13%, Zenit U19 77%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Nizhny Novgorod U19 v Zenit U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nizhny Novgorod U19 win10%

Draw13%

Zenit U19 win77%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nizhny Novgorod U19

Zenit U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zenit u19 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

77% The market70%

Us77%

~~Market~~70%

We make Zenit U19 a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–3.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nizhny Novgorod U19 v Zenit U19~~1.03 – 3.12

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 57~~14 v 2

~~The market · Zenit U19 win~~70% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zenit U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nizhny Novgorod U19 win	10%	12%	−2
Draw	13%	18%	−5
Zenit U19 win	77%	70%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	66%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw	23%	30%	−7
Nizhny Novgorod U19 clean sheet	5%	–	–
Zenit U19 clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 7.8%

0123450 5.2 7.7 7.8 6.0 3.91 5.2 7.8 7.8 6.0 3.82 2.8 4.1 4.0 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nizhny Novgorod U19 down, Zenit U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (89.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zenit U19 away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Nizhny Novgorod U19, 3.12 for Zenit U19. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ZEN 3–0 NIZ · NIZ 2–0 ZEN · ZEN 2–2 NIZ · NIZ 0–8 ZEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug

NIZHNY NOVGOROD U19

DLWLWL0–0 · 1–5 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–5

ZENIT U19

WWWWWW6–3 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 7–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
3	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
9	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	26	−8	30
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	26	−24	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16