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Nizhny Novgorod U19 v Rostov U19

Nizhny Novgorod U19

2–1Full time

Rostov U19

Youth Championship · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:31

Nizhny Novgorod U19 2–1 Rostov U19 ROSTOV U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rostov U19 win~~55%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.946

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.896

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nizhny Novgorod U19 win23%

Draw23%

Rostov U19 win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rostov u19 winPublished 9 Oct 11:02

55% The market52%

Us55%

~~Market~~52%

We make Rostov U19 a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nizhny Novgorod U19 win	23%	25%	−2
Draw	23%	23%	0
Rostov U19 win	55%	52%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	67%	−10
Both teams to score	56%	66%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	79%	84%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	47%	−12
Nizhny Novgorod U19 or draw	45%	48%	−2
Nizhny Novgorod U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Rostov U19 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 9.6 8.8 5.5 2.6 1 5.8 10.5 9.6 5.9 2.8 2 3.2 5.8 5.3 3.3 3 2.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nizhny Novgorod U19 down, Rostov U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,466 Youth Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nizhny Novgorod U19 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rostov U19 away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Nizhny Novgorod U19, 1.86 for Rostov U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ROS 1–1 NIZ · ROS 4–0 NIZ · NIZ 2–2 ROS · ROS 4–0 NIZ

Form · last six in Youth Championship

NIZHNY NOVGOROD U19

LLDLWL0–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 4–3 · 1–2

ROSTOV U19

WWLDLL1–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	24	+44	56
2	Krasnodar U19	24	+36	53
3	Zenit U19	24	+36	51
4	Rodina Moscow U19	24	+31	48
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	24	+22	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	24	+14	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	24	−5	38
8	Spartak Moskva U19	24	−3	31
9	Rostov U19	24	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	24	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	24	−23	24
12	Chertanovo U20	24	−22	23
13	Ural U20	24	−22	22
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	24	−35	19
15	Rubin Kazan U20	24	−33	15
16	Fakel U19	24	−26	13