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Lokomotiv Moskva U19 v Rubin Kazan U20

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1–3Full time

Rubin Kazan U20

Youth Championship · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1–3 Rubin Kazan U20 LOKOMOTIV MOSKVA U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win~~75%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.392

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–10
1′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv Moskva U19 v Rubin Kazan U20
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
37′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–25–12
45′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–29–12
45′HALF-TIME Lokomotiv Moskva U19 0–0 Rubin Kazan U20
46′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv Moskva U19 0–0 Rubin Kazan U20
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 75% at kick-off, 55% now
53′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–34–12
55′A goal for Rubin Kazan U20 on 54′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–31–47
55′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–31–47
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 0–1 Rubin Kazan U20
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 75% at kick-off, 22% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Rubin Kazan U20 win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win 53%)
60′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–31–51
62′Lokomotiv Moskva U19 score on 61′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–42–11
62′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–42–11
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1–1 Rubin Kazan U20
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 75% at kick-off, 47% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Rubin Kazan U20 win 52%)
65′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–45–11
65′Rubin Kazan U20 find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 14–30–56
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1–2 Rubin Kazan U20
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 75% at kick-off, 14% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Rubin Kazan U20 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win 45%)
66′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–30–57
67′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–2 · 13–30–58
71′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–28–63
73′A goal for Rubin Kazan U20 on 73′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–7–92
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1–3 Rubin Kazan U20
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: 75% at kick-off, 1% now
74′We said Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–6–93
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–6–93
FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1–3 Rubin Kazan U20
FTLokomotiv Moskva U19 1–3 Rubin Kazan U20 · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 75%, draw 15%, Rubin Kazan U20 10%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotiv Moskva U19 v Rubin Kazan U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win75%

Draw15%

Rubin Kazan U20 win10%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Rubin Kazan U20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv moskva u19 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

75% The market73%

Us75%

~~Market~~73%

We make Lokomotiv Moskva U19 a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 v Rubin Kazan U20~~2.65 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 50 v 18~~5 v 15

~~The market · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win~~73% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win	75%	73%	+2
Draw	15%	17%	−2
Rubin Kazan U20 win	10%	10%	0
Over 2.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	87%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	55%	−9
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or draw	90%	90%	0
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rubin Kazan U20 clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 3.1 2.8 1 8.2 6.8 3.0 2 10.5 8.8 3.8 3 9.1 7.7 3.3 4 6.1 5.1 2.2 5 3.3 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv Moskva U19 down, Rubin Kazan U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (94.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rubin Kazan U20 away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.65 goals for Lokomotiv Moskva U19, 0.86 for Rubin Kazan U20. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RUB 1–3 LOK · LOK 0–0 RUB · RUB 1–1 LOK · LOK 2–1 RUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug

LOKOMOTIV MOSKVA U19

WLWLLW3–1 · 1–6 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 7–5

RUBIN KAZAN U20

LLLLLW0–5 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
3	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
9	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	26	−8	30
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	26	−24	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16