Krasnodar U19 v Fakel U19 prediction · Youth Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Krasnodar U19DrawFakel U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Krasnodar U19 80%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Krasnodar U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Krasnodar U19 80%, draw 12%, Fakel U19 8%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Krasnodar U19 v Fakel U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Krasnodar U19 win80%

Draw12%

Fakel U19 win8%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krasnodar U19

Fakel U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Krasnodar U19	27	+38	57
16	Fakel U19	27	−27	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · krasnodar u19 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Krasnodar U19 an 80% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–0.9, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krasnodar U19 v Fakel U19~~3.15 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 57 v 19~~3 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krasnodar U19 win	80%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Fakel U19 win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Krasnodar U19 or draw	92%	–	–
Krasnodar U19 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Fakel U19 clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 8.6%

0123450 1 5.5 5.0 2.4 2 8.4 7.7 3.6 3 8.6 7.9 3.7 4 6.7 6.2 2.9 5 4.3 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Krasnodar U19 down, Fakel U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (89.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Youth Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.1% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krasnodar U19 at home: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fakel U19 away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.15 goals for Krasnodar U19, 0.94 for Fakel U19. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FAK 1–2 KRA · KRA 6–0 FAK · FAK 0–0 KRA · KRA 0–0 FAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept

KRASNODAR U19

DWWLWD0–0 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 2–5 · 5–0 · 2–2

FAKEL U19

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–3 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	27	+53	65
2	Zenit U19	27	+45	60
3	Krasnodar U19	27	+38	57
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	+32	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	27	+20	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	+12	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	27	−5	44
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	−6	32
9	Rostov U19	27	−9	32
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	27	−8	31
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	27	−24	28
12	Chertanovo U20	27	−25	26
13	Ural U20	27	−26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	−40	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	27	−30	21
16	Fakel U19	27	−27	19