Fakel U19 v Rostov U19 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Fakel U19 2–0 Rostov U19 ROSTOV U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rostov U19 win~~49%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.938

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rostov U19 win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rostov U19 was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 27–25–49
1′KICK-OFF Fakel U19 v Rostov U19
31′Fakel U19 find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 57–25–17
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Fakel U19 1–0 Rostov U19
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Rostov U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 17% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Fakel U19 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Rostov U19 win 43%)
32′We said Rostov U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 58–25–17
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 58–25–17
41′We said Rostov U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
45′HALF-TIME Fakel U19 1–0 Rostov U19
46′SECOND HALF Fakel U19 1–0 Rostov U19
55′We said Rostov U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Rostov U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
69′We said Rostov U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
91′A goal for Fakel U19 on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Fakel U19 2–0 Rostov U19
FTFULL TIME Fakel U19 2–0 Rostov U19
FTFakel U19 2–0 Rostov U19 · Rostov U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rostov U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fakel U19 27%, draw 24%, Rostov U19 49%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Fakel U19 v Rostov U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fakel U19 win27%

Draw24%

Rostov U19 win49%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fakel U19

Rostov U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rostov u19 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market53%

Us49%

~~Market~~53%

We make Rostov U19 a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fakel U19 v Rostov U19~~1.12 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 32~~16 v 8

~~The market · Rostov U19 win~~53% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rostov U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fakel U19 win	27%	23%	+4
Draw	24%	24%	0
Rostov U19 win	49%	53%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	69%	−18
Both teams to score	53%	69%	−16
Over 1.5 goals	75%	85%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	30%	53%	−23
Fakel U19 or draw	51%	47%	+4
Fakel U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Rostov U19 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 10.6 8.4 4.6 1 7.4 11.4 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 4.1 6.5 5.2 2.8 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fakel U19 down, Rostov U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fakel U19 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rostov U19 away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Fakel U19, 1.62 for Rostov U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ROS 2–1 FAK · ROS 3–0 FAK · FAK 3–2 ROS · FAK 2–1 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug

FAKEL U19

DLLLWL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 1–5

ROSTOV U19

LDLLLD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
3	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
9	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	26	−8	30
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	26	−24	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16