Home › Football › Youth Championship › Fakel U19 v Chertanovo U20

Fakel U19 v Chertanovo U20

Fakel U19

2–1Full time

Chertanovo U20

Youth Championship · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:49

Fakel U19 2–1 Chertanovo U20 FAKEL U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fakel U19 win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.725

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fakel U19 win41%

Draw23%

Chertanovo U20 win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fakel u19 winPublished 9 Oct 13:02

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make Fakel U19 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fakel U19 win	41%	31%	+10
Draw	23%	26%	−2
Chertanovo U20 win	35%	43%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Fakel U19 or draw	65%	57%	+8
Fakel U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Chertanovo U20 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.5 6.6 4.9 2.4 1 7.3 10.6 7.8 3.9 2 5.9 8.6 6.3 3.2 3 3.2 4.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fakel U19 down, Chertanovo U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,466 Youth Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fakel U19 at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chertanovo U20 away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Fakel U19, 1.49 for Chertanovo U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–1 FAK · CHE 1–0 FAK · FAK 1–1 CHE · CHE 4–1 FAK

Form · last six in Youth Championship

FAKEL U19

LDDLLL0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–6

CHERTANOVO U20

LWLLLW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	24	+44	56
2	Krasnodar U19	24	+36	53
3	Zenit U19	24	+36	51
4	Rodina Moscow U19	24	+31	48
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	24	+22	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	24	+14	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	24	−5	38
8	Spartak Moskva U19	24	−3	31
9	Rostov U19	24	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	24	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	24	−23	24
12	Chertanovo U20	24	−22	23
13	Ural U20	24	−22	22
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	24	−35	19
15	Rubin Kazan U20	24	−33	15
16	Fakel U19	24	−26	13