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Dinamo Moskva U19 v Rostov U19

Dinamo Moskva U19

2–2Full time

Rostov U19

Youth Championship · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Dinamo Moskva U19 2–2 Rostov U19 ROSTOV U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rostov U19 win~~39%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.886

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rostov U19 win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rostov U19 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Moskva U19 v Rostov U19
42′Dinamo Moskva U19 find the net on 42′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
42′We said Rostov U19 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Dinamo Moskva U19 1–0 Rostov U19
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Dinamo Moskva U19 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Rostov U19 win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Moskva U19 1–0 Rostov U19
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Moskva U19 1–0 Rostov U19
48′We said Rostov U19 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
49′A goal for Rostov U19 on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–39–31
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Dinamo Moskva U19 1–1 Rostov U19
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dinamo Moskva U19 win 30%)
50′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 30–39–31
60′We said Rostov U19 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 26–46–27
62′Rostov U19 score on 62′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–74
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dinamo Moskva U19 1–2 Rostov U19
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Rostov U19 win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
63′We said Rostov U19 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
72′We said Rostov U19 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
78′We said Rostov U19 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We said Rostov U19 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
87′Dinamo Moskva U19 find the net on 86′. 2–2. 2–2 · 7–86–7
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–86–7
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Dinamo Moskva U19 2–2 Rostov U19
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Rostov U19 win: 39% at kick-off, 7% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Rostov U19 win 7%)
91′We said Rostov U19 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Moskva U19 2–2 Rostov U19
FTDinamo Moskva U19 2–2 Rostov U19 · Rostov U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rostov U19 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Moskva U19 37%, draw 24%, Rostov U19 39%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Moskva U19 v Rostov U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Moskva U19 win37%

Draw24%

Rostov U19 win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Moskva U19

Rostov U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rostov U19	25	−7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	−8	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rostov u19 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market33%

Us39%

~~Market~~33%

We make Rostov U19 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Moskva U19 v Rostov U19~~1.50 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 29 v 31~~10 v 9

~~The market · Rostov U19 win~~33% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rostov U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Moskva U19 win	37%	43%	−6
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Rostov U19 win	39%	33%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	67%	−9
Both teams to score	60%	68%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	80%	85%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	46%	−10
Dinamo Moskva U19 or draw	61%	67%	−6
Dinamo Moskva U19 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Rostov U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 7.5 5.7 2.9 1 7.4 10.8 8.3 4.3 2 5.4 8.1 6.2 3.2 3 2.7 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Moskva U19 down, Rostov U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Moskva U19 at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rostov U19 away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Dinamo Moskva U19, 1.54 for Rostov U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ROS 1–0 DIN · DIN 0–2 ROS · ROS 2–0 DIN · ROS 1–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug

DINAMO MOSKVA U19

WLWLLL3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–4 · 2–3

ROSTOV U19

WLDLLL4–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
3	Zenit U19	25	+38	54
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	+12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	−2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
9	Rostov U19	25	−7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	−23	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16