CSKA Moskva U19 v Rodina Moscow U19 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

CSKA Moskva U19 5–1 Rodina Moscow U19 CSKA MOSKVA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Moskva U19 win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Moskva U19 win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: CSKA Moskva U19 was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–19–25
1′KICK-OFF CSKA Moskva U19 v Rodina Moscow U19
14′A goal for Rodina Moscow U19 on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 33–21–46
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' CSKA Moskva U19 0–1 Rodina Moscow U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 56% at kick-off, 33% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Rodina Moscow U19 win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was CSKA Moskva U19 win 54%)
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Rodina Moscow U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 56% at kick-off, 54% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' CSKA Moskva U19 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Rodina Moscow U19 win 46%)
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' CSKA Moskva U19 1–0 Rodina Moscow U19
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 56% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–15–10
45′CSKA Moskva U19 score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 56%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' CSKA Moskva U19 2–0 Rodina Moscow U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 56% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME CSKA Moskva U19 2–0 Rodina Moscow U19
46′SECOND HALF CSKA Moskva U19 2–0 Rodina Moscow U19
58′CSKA Moskva U19 find the net on 57′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
58′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 56%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' CSKA Moskva U19 3–0 Rodina Moscow U19
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
59′A goal for Rodina Moscow U19 on 59′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' CSKA Moskva U19 3–1 Rodina Moscow U19
61′PENALTY MISSED · 60' CSKA Moskva U19
76′CSKA Moskva U19 score on 75′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' CSKA Moskva U19 4–1 Rodina Moscow U19
77′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
77′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′CSKA Moskva U19 find the net on 89′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′6 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' CSKA Moskva U19 5–1 Rodina Moscow U19
FTFULL TIME CSKA Moskva U19 5–1 Rodina Moscow U19
FTCSKA Moskva U19 5–1 Rodina Moscow U19 · CSKA Moskva U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSKA Moskva U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA Moskva U19 56%, draw 18%, Rodina Moscow U19 25%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on CSKA Moskva U19 v Rodina Moscow U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

CSKA Moskva U19 win56%

Draw18%

Rodina Moscow U19 win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA Moskva U19

Rodina Moscow U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cska moskva u19 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make CSKA Moskva U19 a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Moskva U19 v Rodina Moscow U19~~2.51 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 62 v 54~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Moskva U19 win	56%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Rodina Moscow U19 win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
CSKA Moskva U19 or draw	75%	–	–
CSKA Moskva U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Rodina Moscow U19 clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.8 2.2 1 4.1 6.5 5.3 2.9 2 5.0 7.9 6.5 3.6 3 4.1 6.6 5.3 3.0 4 2.6 4.1 3.4 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Moskva U19 down, Rodina Moscow U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSKA Moskva U19 at home: 3.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moscow U19 away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.51 goals for CSKA Moskva U19, 1.65 for Rodina Moscow U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ROD 2–3 CSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug

CSKA MOSKVA U19

LWWWWW2–4 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 6–1 · 2–0 · 5–2

RODINA MOSCOW U19

LWLWWW1–3 · 6–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
3	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
9	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	26	−8	30
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	26	−24	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16