Home › Football › Youth Championship › Chertanovo U20 v CSKA Moskva U19

Chertanovo U20 v CSKA Moskva U19

Chertanovo U20

2–5Full time

CSKA Moskva U19

Youth Championship · FRI 16 OCT · Arena Chertanovo

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 14:01

Chertanovo U20 2–5 CSKA Moskva U19 CSKA MOSKVA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Moskva U19 win~~69%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.145

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Moskva U19 win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: CSKA Moskva U19 was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 15–16–70
1′KICK-OFF Chertanovo U20 v CSKA Moskva U19
5′CSKA Moskva U19 score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–9–85
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Chertanovo U20 0–1 CSKA Moskva U19
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 85% now
6′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 69%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 6–9–85
13′CSKA Moskva U19 find the net on 13′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–4–95
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Chertanovo U20 0–2 CSKA Moskva U19
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 95% now
14′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 69%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 2–4–95
36′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME Chertanovo U20 0–2 CSKA Moskva U19
46′SECOND HALF Chertanovo U20 0–2 CSKA Moskva U19
53′A goal for Chertanovo U20 on 53′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–13–83
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Chertanovo U20 1–2 CSKA Moskva U19
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 83% now
54′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 69%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–2 · 4–13–84
55′Chertanovo U20 score on 55′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 16–33–50
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Chertanovo U20 2–2 CSKA Moskva U19
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 50% now
56′We said CSKA Moskva U19 at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 2–2 · 16–34–50
57′We said CSKA Moskva U19 at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 2–2 · 16–35–49
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
59′CSKA Moskva U19 find the net on 59′. 2–3. 2–3 · 3–13–84
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Chertanovo U20 2–3 CSKA Moskva U19
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 84% now
60′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 3–13–84
61′A goal for CSKA Moskva U19 on 61′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–97
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chertanovo U20 2–4 CSKA Moskva U19
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 97% now
62′6 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–2–97
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' CSKA Moskva U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We published CSKA Moskva U19 at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
83′CSKA Moskva U19 score on 83′ to make it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Chertanovo U20 2–5 CSKA Moskva U19
84′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Chertanovo U20 2–5 CSKA Moskva U19
FTChertanovo U20 2–5 CSKA Moskva U19 · CSKA Moskva U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSKA Moskva U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chertanovo U20 15%, draw 16%, CSKA Moskva U19 69%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Chertanovo U20 v CSKA Moskva U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Chertanovo U20 win15%

Draw16%

CSKA Moskva U19 win69%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueArena Chertanovo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chertanovo U20

CSKA Moskva U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cska moskva u19 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

69% The market78%

Us69%

~~Market~~78%

We make CSKA Moskva U19 a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chertanovo U20 v CSKA Moskva U19~~1.26 – 2.81

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 59~~13 v 1

~~The market · CSKA Moskva U19 win~~78% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSKA Moskva U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chertanovo U20 win	15%	9%	+6
Draw	16%	13%	+3
CSKA Moskva U19 win	69%	78%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Both teams to score	66%	61%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Chertanovo U20 or draw	31%	22%	+9
Chertanovo U20 clean sheet	7%	–	–
CSKA Moskva U19 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 5.0 6.7 6.2 4.4 2.61 2.4 6.1 8.3 7.6 5.3 3.12 3.9 5.2 4.7 3.3 3 2.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chertanovo U20 down, CSKA Moskva U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chertanovo U20 at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). CSKA Moskva U19 away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Chertanovo U20, 2.81 for CSKA Moskva U19. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CSK 3–0 CHE · CSK 5–1 CHE · CHE 2–0 CSK · CSK 1–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug

CHERTANOVO U20

WLLLWL1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 1–2

CSKA MOSKVA U19

WLWWWW3–2 · 2–4 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 6–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	25	+46	59
2	Zenit U19	25	+38	54
3	Krasnodar U19	25	+33	53
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	+32	51
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	25	+20	47
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	+12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	−2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	25	−4	31
9	Rostov U19	25	−7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	−23	27
12	Ural U20	25	−21	25
13	Chertanovo U20	25	−23	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	25	−34	22
15	Fakel U19	25	−25	16
16	Rubin Kazan U20	25	−34	15