Home › Football › Youth Championship › Chertanovo U20 v Akademiya Konoplev U20

Chertanovo U20 v Akademiya Konoplev U20

Chertanovo U20

3–2Full time

Akademiya Konoplev U20

Youth Championship · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Chertanovo U20 3–2 Akademiya Konoplev U20 AKADEMIYA KONOPLEV U20 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akademiya Konoplev U20 win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.659

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Akademiya Konoplev U20 win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Akademiya Konoplev U20 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 35–21–44
1′KICK-OFF Chertanovo U20 v Akademiya Konoplev U20
11′Akademiya Konoplev U20 find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–18–65
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Chertanovo U20 0–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 65% now
12′We said Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 17–18–66
13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Akademiya Konoplev U20
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
22′Akademiya Konoplev U20 find the net on 21′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–19–66
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Chertanovo U20 0–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 66% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 14–19–67
35′A goal for Chertanovo U20 on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–28–39
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Chertanovo U20 1–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Chertanovo U20 1–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
46′SECOND HALF Chertanovo U20 1–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
49′Chertanovo U20 score on 49′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 64–23–13
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Chertanovo U20 2–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Chertanovo U20 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Akademiya Konoplev U20 win 36%)
50′We said Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–1 · 64–23–13
59′We said Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–23–9
65′48′: R. Gaynullin on the scoresheet for Chertanovo U20, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–22–7
73′We said Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
82′Chertanovo U20 find the net on 81′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Chertanovo U20 3–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20
92′A goal for Akademiya Konoplev U20 on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
92′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 96–4–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Chertanovo U20 3–2 Akademiya Konoplev U20
FTFULL TIME Chertanovo U20 3–2 Akademiya Konoplev U20
FTChertanovo U20 3–2 Akademiya Konoplev U20 · Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akademiya Konoplev U20 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chertanovo U20 35%, draw 21%, Akademiya Konoplev U20 44%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Chertanovo U20 v Akademiya Konoplev U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chertanovo U20 win35%

Draw21%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 win44%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chertanovo U20

Akademiya Konoplev U20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akademiya konoplev u20 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Akademiya Konoplev U20 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chertanovo U20 v Akademiya Konoplev U20~~1.75 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 47~~13 v 6

~~The market · Akademiya Konoplev U20 win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Akademiya Konoplev U20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chertanovo U20 win	35%	28%	+7
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Akademiya Konoplev U20 win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Both teams to score	70%	75%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Chertanovo U20 or draw	56%	52%	+4
Chertanovo U20 clean sheet	14%	–	–
Akademiya Konoplev U20 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.5 4.9 4.7 3.1 1 4.4 8.2 8.0 5.3 2.7 2 3.8 7.2 6.9 4.6 2.3 3 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chertanovo U20 down, Akademiya Konoplev U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chertanovo U20 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Akademiya Konoplev U20 away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Chertanovo U20, 1.99 for Akademiya Konoplev U20. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AKA 3–0 CHE · AKA 0–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 AKA · AKA 1–3 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug

CHERTANOVO U20

LLLWLL1–3 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–5

AKADEMIYA KONOPLEV U20

WWWWLW2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
3	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
9	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	26	−8	30
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	26	−24	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16