Almaz Antey U19 v Ural U20 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Almaz Antey U19 3–0 Ural U20 ALMAZ ANTEY U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almaz Antey U19 win~~65%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.202

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almaz Antey U19 win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Almaz Antey U19 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–16–19
1′KICK-OFF Almaz Antey U19 v Ural U20
28′Almaz Antey U19 find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Almaz Antey U19 1–0 Ural U20
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Almaz Antey U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 80% now
29′We said Almaz Antey U19 at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
44′A goal for Ural U20 on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 54–26–20
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Almaz Antey U19 1–1 Ural U20
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Almaz Antey U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 54% now
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Ural U20
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Almaz Antey U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Almaz Antey U19 1–0 Ural U20
46′SECOND HALF Almaz Antey U19 1–0 Ural U20
74′We said Almaz Antey U19 at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Almaz Antey U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
80′A goal for Almaz Antey U19 on 80′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′We said Almaz Antey U19 at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Almaz Antey U19 2–0 Ural U20
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Almaz Antey U19 win: 65% at kick-off, 99% now
84′We said Almaz Antey U19 at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′Almaz Antey U19 score on 90′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Almaz Antey U19 3–0 Ural U20
FTFULL TIME Almaz Antey U19 3–0 Ural U20
FTAlmaz Antey U19 3–0 Ural U20 · Almaz Antey U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almaz Antey U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Almaz Antey U19 65%, draw 16%, Ural U20 19%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Almaz Antey U19 v Ural U20Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Almaz Antey U19 win65%

Draw16%

Ural U20 win19%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Almaz Antey U19

Ural U20

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almaz antey u19 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

65% The market63%

Us65%

~~Market~~63%

We make Almaz Antey U19 a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Almaz Antey U19 v Ural U20~~2.93 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 41 v 25~~7 v 12

~~The market · Almaz Antey U19 win~~63% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Almaz Antey U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almaz Antey U19 win	65%	63%	+2
Draw	16%	20%	−4
Ural U20 win	19%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	82%	72%	+10
Both teams to score	74%	67%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	93%	87%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	65%	55%	+10
Almaz Antey U19 or draw	81%	83%	−2
Almaz Antey U19 clean sheet	21%	–	–
Ural U20 clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 3.5 5.2 4.0 2.1 2 4.9 7.4 5.7 3.0 3 4.7 7.1 5.5 2.9 4 3.4 5.2 4.0 2.1 5 2.0 3.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Almaz Antey U19 down, Ural U20 across0–5 goals a side shown (91.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,482 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almaz Antey U19 at home: 3.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ural U20 away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.93 goals for Almaz Antey U19, 1.57 for Ural U20. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~URA 1–0 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 28 Aug

ALMAZ ANTEY U19

WWWWWL4–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 5–2 · 1–7

URAL U20

LLWLWL3–6 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 5–7

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	+49	62
2	Zenit U19	26	+44	57
3	Krasnodar U19	26	+38	56
4	Rodina Moscow U19	26	+36	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	26	+13	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	26	−8	41
8	Rostov U19	26	−7	32
9	Spartak Moskva U19	26	−6	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	26	−8	30
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	26	−24	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	−26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	26	−39	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	26	−32	18
16	Fakel U19	26	−29	16