Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Spartak Moskva U19 prediction · Youth Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Akademiya Konoplev U20DrawSpartak Moskva U19

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Akademiya Konoplev U20 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akademiya Konoplev U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akademiya Konoplev U20 46%, draw 22%, Spartak Moskva U19 32%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Spartak Moskva U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Akademiya Konoplev U20 win46%

Draw22%

Spartak Moskva U19 win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akademiya Konoplev U20

Spartak Moskva U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Youth Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	+12	47
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	−6	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akademiya konoplev u20 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Akademiya Konoplev U20 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Spartak Moskva U19~~1.83 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 32~~6 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akademiya Konoplev U20 win	46%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Spartak Moskva U19 win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw	68%	–	–
Akademiya Konoplev U20 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Spartak Moskva U19 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 5.6 4.1 2.0 1 6.8 9.7 7.2 3.6 2 6.0 8.8 6.5 3.3 3 3.7 5.4 4.0 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akademiya Konoplev U20 down, Spartak Moskva U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Youth Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.1% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Moskva U19 away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Akademiya Konoplev U20, 1.49 for Spartak Moskva U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–6 AKA · SPA 1–3 AKA · AKA 1–3 SPA · AKA 2–0 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 4 Sept

AKADEMIYA KONOPLEV U20

WWWLWL3–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–3

SPARTAK MOSKVA U19

DDLLLD0–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	27	+53	65
2	Zenit U19	27	+45	60
3	Krasnodar U19	27	+38	57
4	Rodina Moscow U19	27	+32	54
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	27	+20	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	27	+12	47
7	Almaz Antey U19	27	−5	44
8	Spartak Moskva U19	27	−6	32
9	Rostov U19	27	−9	32
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	27	−8	31
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	27	−24	28
12	Chertanovo U20	27	−25	26
13	Ural U20	27	−26	25
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	27	−40	22
15	Rubin Kazan U20	27	−30	21
16	Fakel U19	27	−27	19